FOR YOUR INFORMATION: Countywide Growth:  How WCPSS Predicts and Responds to Growth

Growth is the single biggest issue facing Wake County and WCPSS for the foreseeable future.  Since 1980 the populations of Wake County and the school system have more than doubled.  This creates great opportunity for our community but also poses challenges as our elected leaders seek strategies to provide services and other resources for all our county’s citizens. 

This edition of WakeFYI will examine growth in Wake County and how the Wake County Public School System responds to that growth.

Wake County Growth

• Population Estimates
  Wake County has experienced explosive growth over the last 24 years. From 1980 through 2000 the U.S. Census Bureau estimates that Wake County grew by more than 326,500. In only 20 years (1980-2000), Wake County more than doubled its total population. This is more people than the combined total of 246,701 people Wake County added from 1900-1980.

  Wake County Population Estimates
  2006	785,990
  2007	817,429
  2008	850,126

• Population Projections
  Population projections suggest this trend is likely to continue. Wake County is expected to pass 1 million residents in 2013, and by 2030 the current population is expected to have nearly doubled, reaching 1,384,019.

  Long Range Projected Growth  -  Wake County Population
  2000-2010	2000	2010	Increase	% Increase
  	627,865	900,072	272,207	43.4
  2010-2020	2010	2020	Increase	% Increase
  	900,072	1,173,840	273,768	30.4
  2020-2030	2020	2030	Increase	% Increase
  	1,173,840	1,464,029	290,189	24.7

WCPSS Growth

• 10th Day Student Enrollment
  WCPSS had 133,715 students in school on the 10th day of the 2007-2008 school year.  This is 5,948 more students in school than the 127,767 students who attended the tenth day of school in 2006-07.

WCPSS will check student enrollment again on day 20 and will report this enrollment to the NC Department of Public Instruction in October.

• Did You Know?
  • WCPSS student population has doubled since 1985 and another 130,000
    students are projected by the year 2025.
  • WCPSS is the largest school system in North Carolina, having just passed
    Charlotte-Mecklenburg this fall and is the 18th largest district in the
    United States.
  • WCPSS outperforms all of the other major school systems on virtually every
    indicator in North Carolina, at a local cost per student far below most of them.
  • It takes property taxes from two new homeowners to cover the cost of one new
    student.
  • It takes only six to nine months to build the average house in Wake County.
    However, it takes 14 months to build an elementary school, 19 months for a
    middle school and 26 months for a high school.
  • This is a volatile time in the construction business. Due to an increased demand
    for labor and supplies, it will take $21.7 million to build a 1,124-student
    capacity year-round elementary school set to open in July 2008, $41 million for
    a 1,663-student capacity year-round middle school set to open in July 2009, and
    $69.4 million for a 2,223-student capacity high school that will open in Jull
    2009. (Costs do not include land.)

Wake County Public School System:  Long-Range School Plan, 2005-2025

• The plan:
  • establishes a data network between Wake County, WCPSS, municipal planners and ORED that will be used to track and forecast residential growth patterns.
  • establishes the creation of the Student Population Distribution Model which
    utilizes approved twenty-year county-wide student population forecasts and
    distributes the forecasted population to municipal areas
  • will provide municipal-level student population forecasts that are directly tied
    to county and municipal planning data.
  • will apply Operations Research techniques to the output of the Student   
    Population Distribution Model to determine optimal target areas for new school sites.
  • allows planners and WCPSS to update the database with new Land Use data
     and student data.
  • was accomplished in three phases.
    • Phase I – Construction of Planning Region Database and Residential
      Land Use Profiles (November 2004 – August 2005
    • Phase II – Comprehensive Land Use Study and Creation of Student
      Population Distribution Model (September 2005 – April 2006)
    • Phase III – Location of Optimal Target Areas for New School Sites
      (May – June 2006)
• More information about the plan, including reports, maps, and tables associated with
  each phase, can be found on the WCPSS Long-Range School Plan Website.

What is ORED and CAMPO?

● N.C. State University’s Operations Research and Education Laboratory

The mission of the ORED Laboratory is to help educators and public administrators use the modern tools of management science and thereby enable them to make decisions wisely, to evaluate policy alternatives thoroughly, and to allocate resources efficiently.

The ORED Laboratory has an important mission and a challenging opportunity: to help our schools, public institutions, and non-profit organizations use operations research (OR) to improve the allocation of resources, the quality of planning, and the effectiveness of decisions.

OR involves defining a problem with as much precision as possible, building a mathematical model that condenses the essential characteristics of the problem, and observing the model's behavior as it changes over time or as its parameters are adjusted.

● Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO)

The Capital Area MPO serves as the coordinating agency between local governments, NCDOT, and FHWA.  Staff has established a close working relationship with the planning departments of municipalities within Wake County and also with the planning staff of the neighboring MPO.

The Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO) grew from a collaborative project between Cary, Raleigh, Garner, and Wake County known as the Greater Raleigh Urban Area Thoroughfare Plan of 1964.  During the 1980s and 1990s Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay-Varina, Knightdale, Wendell, Zebulon, Rolesville, Wake Forest, Morrisville, and Wake County joined the MPO.   

For More Information on How WCPSS Predicts and Responds to Growth: 

• Join us at the Wake Regional Education Roundtable on October 3 to learn more from Chuck Dulaney, Assistant Superintendant of Growth and Planning for WCPSS.   Registration required.
  • Learn more about or register for this event: Wake Education Partnership Events

• Read more about growth and planning in Wake County and WCPSS at: 

WCPSS Growth Resource Center
WCPSS Long Range School Plan
Wake County, NC Growth
State of NC Demographics
N.C. State University’s Operations Research and Education Laboratory
Operations Research/Education Laboratory (OR/Ed. Lab)
Capital Area Metropolitan Planning Organization (CAMPO)
Quality Matters 2006